| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sébastien Delogu | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Martine Vassal | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Franck Allisio | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Benoît Payan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate or slate will become mayor of Marseille, reflecting collective expectations about the outcome of the city's municipal contest. It matters because Marseille is France's second-largest city and its mayor shapes local policy on public safety, housing, transport and economic development.
Marseille's municipal politics are shaped by its size, socio-economic diversity, and history of strong party competition between left, center-right and far-right forces, as well as by local coalitions and personality-driven campaigns. French municipal elections for large cities use list-based voting and can involve two rounds and post-election coalition building, so electoral dynamics often hinge on alliances, turnout and vote transfers between rounds.
Prices in this prediction market reflect traders' collective expectations about which outcome will be declared the winner under the event's resolution rules. They are not formal forecasts of policy outcomes but can update quickly as new polling, endorsements, alliances or campaign events occur.
The contract resolves according to KALSHI's official event terms: check the market page for the precise resolution condition (e.g., the person formally declared mayor by official electoral authorities or the winner of a specified round).
In this market the four outcomes correspond to four mutually exclusive possibilities (usually specific leading candidates, slates or coalitions). Each outcome represents the market's option for who will be declared mayor under the event's stated resolution rules.
For large cities, lists compete for council seats with possible vote transfers and a majority bonus for the leading list; the municipal council then elects the mayor, so pre- and post-election alliances and seat distributions materially affect who can secure the mayoralty.
Monitor official polls, strategic withdrawals or endorsements, coalition agreements between rounds, municipal candidate debates, major local incidents or scandals, and turnout indicators from early voting or neighborhood-level surveys.
The listed close time is TBD; for exact deadlines and any changes, consult the KALSHI event page and its rules. Close timing can be tied to a specified election date, official result certification, or a preannounced cutoff.