| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McGuire | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Audrey Denney | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kyle Wilson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| James Gallagher | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Brian Dahle | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will win the special election to fill the U.S. House seat for California's 1st Congressional District. It matters because it determines who will represent the district and can carry local and, in close Congress margins, national implications.
A special election is held whenever a House seat becomes vacant; officials set the schedule and candidates file to appear on the special ballot. CA-01 covers a geographically large district in northern California with a mix of rural, exurban, and small-city voters, and its outcomes are shaped by local issues as much as by statewide or national dynamics.
Prediction market odds represent the aggregated beliefs of traders based on available information and update as news arrives; they are signals of market sentiment, not guarantees. Use market prices alongside polls, fundraising data, and local reporting to form a fuller view.
A special election is being held to fill a vacancy in California's 1st Congressional District; the specific cause of the vacancy and the official schedule are announced by state and county election authorities and posted on their websites.
The market outcomes correspond to the candidate names (and any 'Other' or grouped outcomes) published on the platform; check the event page on the trading platform for the exact mapping from outcomes to candidate names.
The election date is set by state officials and may include a primary and a subsequent general/special runoff depending on state rules; the market's closing times will update to reflect official dates announced by election authorities.
Whether a single seat affects House control depends on the current majority margin; in close chambers a lone seat can be consequential, while in larger margins it primarily affects local representation and the balance of future policy debates.
Major candidate withdrawals or endorsements, polling releases for the district, significant fundraising or spending reports, court rulings on ballot access, and unexpected local events or scandals are the most likely catalysts for large market moves.