| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Conservative | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Plaid Cymru | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Liberal Democrats | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Green | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Reform | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which party or grouping will be regarded as the winner of the 2026 Welsh Parliament (Senedd) election. It matters because outcomes determine which party leads the Welsh Government and influence devolved policy and UK-wide politics.
The Welsh Parliament uses a mixed-member proportional system that combines constituency seats with regional lists, producing a legislature where single-party majorities are possible but coalitions and agreements are common. Welsh politics has been shaped by the performance of the devolved government, regional voting patterns, and interactions with UK-level party fortunes, all of which will influence the 2026 contest.
Market prices are an aggregation of trader expectations and move as new information arrives; they are not guarantees of the result. Always check the market’s specific outcome definitions and settlement rules to understand what a listed ‘‘winner’’ means for this event.
The market will follow the event text and settlement terms posted on its page to define a 'win'—for example, whether that means the largest party by seats, the party that forms government, or the person appointed First Minister. Check the market’s official outcome definitions to know which interpretation applies here.
The market's close time is listed as TBD; markets like this typically close at a specified time before counting begins or on a date set by the market operator. Confirm the exact close time and any early-close conditions on the market page before trading.
The six outcomes are the labels chosen by the market creator and may represent individual parties, grouped parties, or scenarios (e.g., 'no single party wins'). For the precise mapping of those six outcomes to parties or scenarios, consult the outcome list and definitions on the market page.
Use past results to understand where each party's strengths lie across constituencies and list regions, and remember the Additional Member System can amplify or reduce seat swings relative to vote swings; historical patterns are informative but changing political contexts and turnout can alter outcomes.
Payout depends on the market’s settlement rule: some markets resolve to the largest party by seats, others to the party that forms the government or whose leader becomes First Minister. Read the market’s settlement criteria to know how post-election coalitions will be treated for this event.