| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Sim | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kareem Allam | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rebecca Bligh | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Pete Fry | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Coupar | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kirk LaPointe | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sean Orr | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be elected mayor of Vancouver in the 2026 municipal election; it matters because mayoral outcomes shape city policy on housing, transit, development, and climate action.
Vancouver municipal politics are driven by local issues such as housing affordability, transit and active transportation, homelessness and social services, and development policy. The city has a history of competitive mayoral contests and coalition-building across civic parties and independent candidates. Provincial and federal policy, as well as economic conditions and major local events, frequently affect voter preferences in Vancouver races.
Market prices aggregate traders’ views and public information to indicate who participants expect will win; treat those prices as a continuously updated summary of collective expectations rather than a fixed forecast.
The market will resolve to the candidate officially declared elected by the city’s authorized election official or returning officer, or another official source specified in the market rules; check the market’s resolution criteria for the precise authority used.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific named candidate as listed on the market page. If the official winner is not among the listed outcomes, the market’s rules will determine resolution — common approaches include an 'Other' outcome, a specific resolution clause, or operator-defined procedures — review the market description for details.
The close time is set by the market operator and currently marked TBD; the page will update with a firm close. Markets typically stop accepting trades at or before their scheduled close, and late-breaking official developments after close may affect post-close settlement depending on the market’s resolution rules.
If official declaration is delayed or contested, the market will follow its specified resolution procedure, which usually waits for the official final declaration by the returning officer or applicable authority; operators may also have dispute-handling rules — check the market terms for timelines and examples.
Track formal candidate nominations, major endorsements, fundraising and volunteer recruitment reports, opinion polls focused on Vancouver, performance in debates and local forums, council votes and high-profile policy actions affecting housing and transit, and turnout indicators or events that could shift voter engagement.