| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Chow | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Tory | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Brad Bradford | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Anthony Furey | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks who will win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election and aggregates participant beliefs about that outcome. It matters because the mayor sets priorities on transit, housing, municipal budgets, and services in Canada's largest city.
Toronto holds municipal elections on a four‑year cycle, with the next mayoral contest expected in October 2026 under the provincial election schedule; the precise market close is listed as TBD. The race will be shaped by candidate entries, incumbency status, municipal fiscal pressures, housing and transit debates, and interactions with provincial and federal governments.
Market prices reflect the collective view of traders about which candidate will be the officially certified winner and will update as new information arrives. Treat prices as one signal alongside polls, fundraising, endorsements, and local reporting.
The market close is listed as TBD; platforms typically close or settle once the official, certified winner is declared by the City of Toronto or relevant authority. Check the market page for any updates to the close or settlement timing.
The market's outcomes are the named candidates or options displayed on the market page; that roster can change only according to the platform's rules, so consult the market page for the current list of outcomes and any additions or removals.
Settlement will rely on the officially certified result from the City of Toronto or the court that issues a final determination; if certification is delayed, the market may remain open or wait for the authoritative outcome per the platform's published settlement rules.
Watch candidate entry/withdrawal announcements, polling releases, major endorsements, fundraising disclosures, debate performances, municipal budget decisions, and breaking local stories—each can materially affect perceptions of who will win.
Recent history shows incumbency, name recognition, and strong local networks often help candidates, but Toronto voters have shifted when local conditions or high-profile events change the political environment. Use history for context but prioritize current candidate dynamics and issues.