| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNP | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Conservatives | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Labour | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Greens | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Liberal Democrats | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Reform UK | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which party will emerge as the winner of the 2026 Scottish Parliament election; it matters because the outcome shapes Scotland’s devolved policymaking, relations with the UK government, and the future of the independence debate.
Scotland’s Parliament (Holyrood) uses a mixed-member system that combines constituency seats with regional list seats, which affects how votes translate into seats and often produces minority or coalition administrations. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has been the largest party at Holyrood for multiple election cycles, while Labour, the Conservatives, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats and smaller groups have all played important roles in past parliaments. Key long‑running issues include Scottish independence, public services (notably health and education), and the economic effects of UK-wide policy decisions.
Market prices are a dynamic, collective signal from traders about which party they expect will finish first under the market’s resolution rules; they change as new information arrives and are not the same as electoral polls or a determination of who will govern. Always check the market contract wording to understand whether ‘win’ refers to most seats, most votes, or another specific criterion.
Resolution depends on the contract terms for this market; typically, ‘win’ means the party that is recorded as finishing first under the official, certified election result (commonly the party with the most seats), but you should consult the market’s rules for the precise definition used here.
It means the market offers six mutually exclusive outcomes (usually party labels or a defined ‘other’ category); check the specific outcome labels on the market page to see which parties or options are included and how they map to official results.
Markets like this typically resolve based on the official certified election result rather than provisional night returns; the exact timing and closing rules are set by the market operator and will be stated on the market’s contract page.
Not necessarily — being the largest party is different from being able to form a governing majority. Scotland’s mixed system often produces minority or coalition administrations, so a market that predicts the largest party does not automatically imply which party or coalition will govern.
Useful patterns include the SNP’s sustained position as the largest party since 2007, the frequency of minority or coalition governments at Holyrood, and regional vote differences that affect list-seat allocations; these structural features shape how shifts in vote share translate into the party finishing first.