| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
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| CAQ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| PLQ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| QS | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| PQ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| PCQ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which political party will win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election; it matters because the winner will determine the province's governing party and policy direction. Traders use it to express expectations about the election outcome and to aggregate dispersed information about campaign dynamics.
Quebec elects its National Assembly members from single-member districts under a first-past-the-post system; the party that commands a plurality of seats typically forms the government. Provincial politics are shaped by issues such as healthcare, education, language and identity, economic conditions, and relations with the federal government, and leadership changes or emergent movements can alter the competitive landscape between elections.
Market prices reflect the aggregated judgments of traders about which party will be the official winner and update as new information arrives; they are not definitive predictions and can move quickly in response to polls, events, and official developments.
The market close is listed as TBD; final resolution will follow the official election outcome as certified by Quebec's electoral authorities (Directeur général des élections du Québec) and any additional timing rules specified by KALSHI, so check the platform for the exact closing and settlement schedule.
Winning is determined by the official recognition of the election result: typically the party that wins the most seats or the party officially invited to form government and that commands the confidence of the Assembly as certified by election authorities.
If no single party wins a majority, the market's outcome will depend on which party is officially able to form government or otherwise is recognized as the governing party; consult the market rules on KALSHI for any specific tie- or coalition-resolution procedures.
Treat those events as informative signals that can change the balance of support: polls indicate momentum, leadership changes can reset voter preferences, and by-elections can foreshadow regional shifts—combine these signals with an understanding of seat distribution rather than relying on any single data point.
Key milestones are the formal election call, election day results, and the certification of results by the Directeur général des élections du Québec; official government announcements about who will form the government are also material for settlement.