| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Pete Hegseth | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| JD Vance | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Reza Pahlavi | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jared Kushner | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Any U.S. Senator | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Any U.S. House member | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which named individual will visit Iran before July; it matters because such visits signal diplomatic priorities, can affect regional alignments, and often precede policy or negotiation shifts.
Iran receives periodic visits from foreign heads of state, ministers, and senior envoys tied to negotiations, security talks, trade, or regional diplomacy. The timing and identity of visitors reflect both Tehran's outreach strategy and visitors' domestic and foreign-policy calculations, and are sensitive to ongoing regional crises and sanctions dynamics.
Market prices aggregate dispersed information and trader expectations about which listed person will make an in-person visit during the window; they move with new announcements, travel plans, and geopolitical developments and should be read as a snapshot of collective judgment, not a guarantee.
The market lists eight specific outcome names on its trading page; only those named outcomes are eligible for resolution—unlisted persons are not considered.
Resolution typically requires an in-person arrival in Iran during the market’s stated timeframe, corroborated by official statements or credible contemporary reporting; the market’s resolution source defines the precise standard.
Resolution rules for the market determine handling of multiple visits; commonly the first qualifying visit among listed outcomes wins, but traders should consult the market’s resolution statement for the exact tie-breaking approach.
Generally they do not—markets of this type require physical, in-country presence unless the market document explicitly states otherwise; brief technical layovers that do not involve leaving the airport usually do not qualify.
An announcement does not resolve the market; only an actual in-person visit within the July cutoff qualifies. Cancellations or postponements beyond the cutoff mean that outcome will not win for this market period.