Who will Trump pardon?

For this event, a 'pardon' refers to an officially announced act of federal clemency by the president that is publicly verifiable via a White House press release, DOJ publication, the Federal Register, or the text of a signed clemency document. Traders should consult the specific event rules for precise definitions used to resolve outcomes.

Commutations and reprieves are distinct from pardons; whether they count depends on this event’s resolution rules. If an outcome explicitly lists someone as 'pardon' only, commutations typically do not qualify unless the event rules state otherwise. Check the market’s official resolution policy for how different forms of clemency are treated.

The event page currently lists the close time as TBD; markets typically remain open until the organizer sets a close or until a predefined cutoff (such as the end of a presidential term) is reached. Outcomes are resolved after a verifiable official announcement or when the event’s resolution window specified in the rules has passed—monitor the event page for updates.

When a single official action names multiple individuals, each named individual becomes a verifiable subject for resolution if they are listed as separate outcomes in the market. Blanket or vague language can create ambiguity; resolution typically relies on the precise names in the official text or accompanying documentation.

Track primary sources: White House and Department of Justice announcements, the Federal Register, and the text of clemency documents. Secondary but important signals include filings in federal court, statements from attorneys or the pardon office, major investigative reporting from reliable outlets, and timing patterns such as pardons issued near key legal deadlines or the end of a term.