| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Keonne Rodriguez | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Derek Chauvin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sam Bankman-Fried | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jared Kushner | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Eric Adams | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Steve Bannon | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bob Menendez | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Julian Assange | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Roger Ver | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Matt Borges | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sean Combs | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Edward Snowden | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Robin Smith | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Larry Householder | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Joseph Maldonado | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Torence Hatch | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kenneth Petty | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nicolás Maduro | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Martin Shkreli | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Aimee Bock | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bill Hwang | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Elizabeth Holmes | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tim Leissner | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Kiriakou | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Braden John Karony | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nicole Daedone | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rachel Cherwitz | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tal Alexander | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which named individual President Trump will pardon before 2027 and matters because pardons can alter legal outcomes for high-profile figures and shape political alliances and narratives.
The U.S. president has broad clemency power and President Trump used pardons and commutations during his previous term for allies and controversial figures; talk of future pardons has been a recurring element of political discussion and litigation. Whether and whom a president pardons depends on legal status, pending cases, public signals, and political calculations, all of which evolve over time.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders about which named individual is most likely to be pardoned before the event cutoff; prices move as legal developments, public statements, and campaign dynamics change. Treat market odds as a realtime aggregation of information rather than a fixed forecast.
The precise cutoff date and time are defined in the market's official rules on the event page; consult the market resolution rules to see the timestamp Kalshi will use for determining whether a pardon occurred before 2027.
Whether commutations or preemptive actions count depends on the event's resolution criteria; typically Kalshi events require a formal, verifiable presidential act as defined in the market rules, so check those rules to see which clemency actions are eligible.
A U.S. president can only pardon federal offenses; state convictions are handled by state governors or pardon boards and generally do not count unless the event's rules explicitly include state-level clemency—verify the market's scope in the event description.
Public comments are informative signals that can move market prices, but they are not definitive proof; markets price in credibility, timing, and follow-through, so weigh statements alongside legal developments and official actions.
Resolution procedures depend on the event's stated rules: some markets resolve to the first qualifying pardon, others to any instance matching an outcome name, and some markets have special tie rules—check the Kalshi event page for the specific resolution protocol for this market.