| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Henry Cuellar | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Thomas Massie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Fetterman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lisa Murkowski | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Don Bacon | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which named public officials will switch party affiliation or formally leave their party during calendar year 2026. Such moves can reshape legislative margins, primary dynamics, and electoral strategies at state and federal levels.
Party switching and formal departures are relatively rare but consequential events driven by ideological shifts, electoral incentives, or strategic calculations. The 2026 cycle includes midterm and primary contests that increase pressure on incumbents, creating a context where defections, retirements, or re-registrations can matter for control of legislatures and national narratives. Historical examples show these actions often follow major policy fights, leadership changes, or credible electoral vulnerabilities.
Market prices reflect collective judgment about whether specific listed individuals will meet the event’s resolution criteria before the market closes. Traders should interpret movement as changing expectations about real-world developments, not as definitive predictions.
Typically this means an official, public change of party affiliation or a formal declaration that they are leaving their party; resolution will rely on verifiable public records or authoritative public statements as specified in the event rules.
Resolution timing is determined by the event’s official rules; with 'TBD' traders should monitor the event page and Kalshi’s resolution schedule for the announced closing and final adjudication date.
The market’s outcomes are the six named individuals or categories posted on the event page; outcome additions or edits are uncommon after listing, so check the event details for the specific names and any category definitions.
Resolution relies on the event’s stated criteria—usually a clear, verifiable change during the eligibility window; temporary or retracted statements are evaluated against those criteria and official documentation.
Track authoritative sources such as official statements, party registration records, reliable news outlets, and the event’s updates page; pay attention to primary calendars, legislative sessions, and major announcements that can alter incentives for switching.