| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Donald J. Trump | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ron DeSantis | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Marco Rubio | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nikki Haley | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Greg Abbott | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Elon Musk | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Brian Kemp | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Matt Gaetz | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Byron Donalds | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Elise Stefanik | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Josh Hawley | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rand Paul | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ted Cruz | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Katie Britt | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Thune | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tucker Carlson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Steve Bannon | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Erika Kirk | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Pete Hegseth | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jared Kushner | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Thomas Massie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lists named outcomes for who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination and aggregates trader expectations about which individuals will enter the race. It matters because market prices synthesize public signals and insider information about entry decisions before formal campaigns are fully launched.
Background: candidate fields for presidential nominations evolve over years, shaped by incumbency status, midterm and statewide results, fundraising strength, and political events; this market (hosted on KALSHI) currently contains 29 listed outcomes and has seen active trading. Historically, prospective candidates test support, build organizations, and stagger formal announcements; that process and its public signals drive market activity.
How to interpret market odds: market prices reflect the collective judgement of traders and update as new information arrives; they are a real-time indicator of perceived likelihoods and momentum but should be read alongside fundamentals like fundraising, endorsements, and organizational capacity.
The market close date is listed as TBD; KALSHI will set a closing/resolution timeline according to the contract’s rules and will update the market page when a closing date or resolution condition is established.
Resolution depends on the contract text on the market page—typically it requires an official campaign filing or a public declaration meeting the platform’s stated criteria; check the market’s description for the precise definition used to determine winners.
Platform policy varies: exchanges may add outcomes or create new markets rather than altering settled outcome lists; any additions or changes would be announced on the KALSHI market page and in platform notices—monitor those for updates.
Such events often prompt rapid repricing as traders incorporate fresh information about electability, legal risk, or momentum; sudden developments can both prompt entries into the race and deter potential candidates.
Useful patterns include: incumbents often deter challengers; top-tier candidates typically announce 12–24 months before primaries; early state performance and fundraising are strong predictors of viability; many announced exploratory efforts never become full campaigns.