| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danica Patrick | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Paul Finebaum | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Mike Lindell | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Casey DeSantis | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Alexander Vindman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Matt Gaetz | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Matthew McConaughey | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mark Cuban | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nicki Minaj | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Mark Moran | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Jake Paul | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Joe Kent | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Dan Bilzerian | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
This prediction market asks which listed person will run for public office in 2026, allowing traders to express expectations about candidacies that shape the next election cycle. It matters because early signals about who will run affect campaign dynamics, fundraising, and strategic decisions by parties and donors.
Candidacy decisions typically follow a cycle of exploratory activity, fundraising, and formal filing deadlines; many potential candidates test the waters months or years before an election. Historical patterns show incumbents often wait to announce until strategic moments, while challengers and high-profile figures may declare early to build name recognition and donor networks. Media coverage, primary calendars, and changes in district lines also shape when and whether individuals enter races.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which listed outcome will occur based on available public information and private assessments. Use prices as a continuously updated signal that incorporates new announcements, filings, and major events, but consult the event's resolution criteria to understand how trades translate into final settlements.
Resolution depends on the market's stated contract rules—typically an official filing with the relevant election authority or a clear public campaign announcement; check the event description for the exact definition used to settle outcomes.
The market will resolve according to the event's resolution conditions and timeline specified on the market page; if the close date is TBD, follow updates on the event page or the platform's rulebook for the final settlement schedule.
Treatment of late announcements depends on the contract terms—many markets use a defined cutoff or rely on filing deadlines; if an announcement happens after the market's resolution point, it typically will not affect settlement, so confirm the cutoff in the event rules.
A public declaration not to run is strong evidence but settlement follows the contract's criteria; the market may require an official filing or other conditions, so check the event page for whether voluntary withdrawals or public statements trigger immediate resolution.
Monitor official filings with election authorities, major news outlets, statements from candidates and their staff, fundraising disclosures, key endorsements, and the market's own updates—these sources tend to produce the information that moves prices and determines final outcomes.