| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ratinho Júnior | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Renan Santos | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tarcisio de Frietas | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which listed person will run for President of Brazil; the composition of the candidate field shapes vote dynamics, coalition-building, and campaign strategy.
Brazilian presidential candidacies are formalized through registration with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) ahead of the election; parties, coalitions and internal primaries determine who appears on that list. Legal eligibility, party decisions, and last‑minute withdrawals or substitutions have historically reshaped fields in the months before registration.
Market prices represent traders' aggregated beliefs about who will be on the ballot or formally run, and they update in real time as announcements, legal rulings, or political events occur. Always check the market contract for the exact resolution rule (e.g., registration date or official list used).
Most markets use the TSE's official candidate registration list or the market's stated resolution criteria; check this market's contract page to see whether resolution is based on formal registration, public declaration, or another official milestone.
'Closes: TBD' means the market has not been assigned a final close date; trading continues until the market operator announces a close or until the contract's specified resolution event (typically the registration deadline) occurs—monitor official calendar updates and the market page for the close.
If the market resolves based on formal registration, only those registered at the resolution point will be counted; announcements and withdrawals before that point will influence prices but do not determine final resolution unless reflected in the official registration list.
Not necessarily—primaries and internal nominations indicate intent and influence expectations, but many markets resolve on formal registration or the official candidate list; consult the contract to see whether the market tracks declared candidacies, party nominees, or registered candidates.
Definitive events like official registration filings, party convention results, court rulings on eligibility, high‑profile campaign launches or withdrawals, major endorsements, and significant scandals or economic shocks tend to produce the largest price movements.