| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Greece | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| USA | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Finland | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Austria | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Singapore | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Japan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| South Korea | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| New Zealand | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Germany | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Switzerland | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| The Netherlands | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Panama | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which listed state or actor will formally recognize Palestine before 2027; recognition decisions can reshape diplomatic alignments and affect peace diplomacy, aid flows, and regional politics.
Formal recognition of a Palestinian state has been a contested and gradual process since the mid-20th century, with some states recognizing Palestine decades ago and others withholding recognition for strategic or political reasons. Recognition decisions often reflect a mix of bilateral relationships, domestic politics, regional alliances, and international pressure, and they can be prompted by changes in government, major diplomatic initiatives, or shifts in great-power policy.
Prices in this market reflect participants' collective assessment of which listed actor is most likely to recognize Palestine before the cutoff; they update as new information arrives and should be read as a real-time summary of expectations rather than a static forecast.
Typically this means recognition must occur on or before the last calendar day of 2026, but the definitive cutoff and time zone are established in the contract’s resolution terms, so consult the event page or rules for the exact deadline.
Whether a statement counts depends on the contract’s resolution language: some markets require formal, documented diplomatic recognition or exchange of ambassadors, while others accept official government declarations; check the event’s resolution criteria to know what qualifies.
That depends on the market’s predefined rules—some contracts treat votes or status changes separately from bilateral recognition, so review the event description to see which types of actions are included.
Outcome eligibility is determined by the event’s listed options and terms; if the market lists only sovereign states or named actors, only those can win—check the outcomes panel to see exactly which entities are eligible.
Track official statements from foreign ministries of listed actors, election outcomes and government coalitions in candidate states, diplomatic visits and agreements, major regional summits, and authoritative reports from international organizations—any of these can produce the public actions needed for resolution.