| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delcy Rodríguez | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| María Corina Machado | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Edmundo González | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Vladimir Padrino López | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nicolás Maduro | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jorge Rodríguez | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Juan Guaidó | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Donald Trump | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Marco Rubio | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Miguel Rodríguez Torres | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Pete Hegseth | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dinorah Figuera | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Stephen Miller | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 2+ people | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual or authority will be recognized as Venezuela's official leader on June 1; it matters because the answer determines who holds executive power, international recognition, and control over state institutions at that date.
Venezuela has experienced prolonged political and economic turmoil, including contested elections, mass emigration, sanctions, and a history of rival claims to executive authority. Control of key institutions such as the military, the Supreme Court, and the National Assembly has repeatedly shaped who is able to govern in practice and be recognized abroad.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective assessment of who will be accepted as the official leader by relevant domestic institutions and foreign governments by the specified date; use them as a real‑time signal of shifting expectations rather than a guarantee of outcome.
It means who is publicly accepted as the head of state or government on that date for practical and legal purposes — including control of executive functions, official recognition by domestic institutions, and, often, recognition by other states and organizations.
Yes; the market typically lists any distinct claimants or designations that could be considered the official leader on June 1, including interim, acting, caretaker, or permanently installed leaders.
Foreign recognition matters because it affects diplomatic relations, access to frozen assets, and the ability to sign international agreements; in many contexts, a leader who controls domestic institutions but lacks broad international recognition may still be treated differently by markets and governments.
Decisive events include a formal inauguration or transfer of power, a binding court or electoral authority ruling, an explicit military endorsement or coup, or a negotiated agreement that installs a named leader before that date.
Monitor official Venezuelan government and institutional statements (executive, Supreme Court, National Assembly), credible domestic and international news outlets, foreign government and multilateral organization announcements, and real‑time market updates on the prediction platform.