Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026?

The market's close date is listed as TBD; the contract refers to departures occurring during the 2026 calendar year. Check the exchange's contract page for any announced settlement deadlines or updates to the closing date.

Typically this means a permanent departure from the named position during 2026 — for example, resignation, firing, or death — as determined by the exchange's settlement criteria. Temporary absences, leaves of absence, or reassignment may be treated differently; consult the contract text for exact definitions.

Settlement decisions rely on official announcements and widely reported, attributable public sources per the exchange's rules. In case of ambiguity, the exchange will follow its dispute-resolution process and publish the ruling used to settle the contract.

Whether a return affects settlement depends on the contract's definition of a qualifying departure. Some contracts count the initial exit regardless of a later return; others require the departure to be permanent. Review the market's settlement guidance for the precise rule.

Turnover rates vary across administrations and over time; comparison requires looking at the number and timing of exits, roles affected, and the context (e.g., elections, policy battles, legal issues). Use historical turnover patterns as background but focus on current reporting and the specific drivers listed in the key factors for 2026.