| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Page | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Peter Thiel | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Chamath Palihapitiya | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Marc Andreessen | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ David Sacks | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Palmer Luckey | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jensen Huang | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks which named individual or organization will leave California before 2027; it matters because such departures can signal political, corporate, or demographic shifts with broader policy and economic implications.
The market lists eight specific outcomes and remains open with a closing date listed as TBD, so participants are trading expectations about future moves by those named. Historically, relocations from California have been driven by factors such as cost, taxes, regulatory environment, personal and political considerations, and corporate strategy; this market aggregates those expectations for the listed names.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of participants and update as new information arrives; they are not guarantees but signals about how traders currently assess the likelihood of each named outcome resolving before the stated cutoff. Always check the contract text and settlement rules on the exchange for how outcomes are defined and resolved.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific named person or entity listed on the market contract; the market will resolve in favor of whichever listed name satisfies the contract's exit criteria first, subject to the exchange's settlement rules.
The phrase indicates the event must occur prior to the start of 2027, but the precise cutoff (including time zone and the exchange's operational definition) is governed by the contract and the exchange rulebook, so review the market terms for exact timing.
Relevant evidence typically includes public filings, change-of-address records, corporate incorporation/registered-agent updates, official statements, lease terminations, or other verifiable public records; the exchange will rely on its documented resolution procedures when evaluating evidence.
Immediate public announcements (resignations, address changes, corporate press releases) usually move market expectations quickly; subsequent clarifications or reversals can prompt further price adjustments and may trigger disputes if the contract's criteria are not clearly met.
If ambiguity or dispute arises, the exchange follows its dispute-resolution and adjudication process, which may involve reviewing primary sources and applying the contract language to reach a final settlement; participants should consult the market's settlement protocol for details.