| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmundo González | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| María Corina Machado | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Donald Trump | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jorge Rodríguez | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nicolás Maduro | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Vladimir Padrino López | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Evan Pettus | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Frank Donovan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dan Caine | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Marco Rubio | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Pete Hegseth | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Richard Grenell | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dinorah Figuera | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Stephen Miller | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Miguel Rodríguez Torres | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Juan Guaidó | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual or entity will be recognized as leading Venezuela at the end of 2026; it matters because leadership determines domestic policy, international relations, and economic direction. Market prices reflect collective expectations about who will hold power by that date.
Venezuela has experienced prolonged political polarization, economic hardship, and competition between chavista institutions and opposition figures since the late 2010s. Power dynamics have involved electoral contests, contested claims to authority, security forces, and shifts in international recognition. Ongoing crises in public finances, migration, and governance continue to shape the political environment.
Interpret market odds as the crowd’s aggregated view of which outcome will be true on the settlement date rather than a forecast of future events with certainty. For official resolution rules and the contract’s definition of 'lead Venezuela,' consult the market’s terms and Kalshi's settlement policy.
Settlement follows the market’s official resolution language and Kalshi’s policies; commonly this hinges on who is widely recognized as the head of state or who exercises effective control on the specified settlement date, so check the contract page for the exact rule.
Outcomes typically list named individuals, plus category options such as 'Other' or 'No recognized leader'; view the market page to see the precise set of named and catch-all outcomes being traded.
'TBD' means the market does not yet have a fixed closing time; trading may continue until Kalshi sets a closing/settlement date or conditions, so monitor official announcements for deadlines and eligibility windows.
Key events include scheduled or unscheduled presidential elections, leadership changes within chavista institutions, defections or splits in the security forces, negotiated transitions, or major shifts in foreign governments’ recognition and sanctions policies.
Contested situations are resolved according to the contract’s criteria and Kalshi’s resolution procedures, which typically reference legal recognition and effective control; in ambiguous cases the exchange’s adjudication and official statements will determine which outcome settles.