| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Hagerty | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mike Waltz | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ric Grenell | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Robert O'Brien | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| No other person | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will serve as President Trump's next Secretary of State; the choice matters because the Secretary shapes U.S. diplomacy, alliances, and foreign-policy priorities.
Presidential selections for Secretary of State combine foreign-policy experience, political loyalty, and Senate confirmation prospects. Past Trump administrations have nominated a mix of professional diplomats and political appointees; timing and external events (crises, elections) often influence the selection process.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective assessment of who is most likely to be designated and recognized under the market’s settlement rules; expect prices to move quickly on public announcements, vetting reports, and confirmation developments.
The market close and resolution trigger are set by the exchange and shown in the event terms—check the event page for updates; common triggers include an official nomination, a formal Senate confirmation, or another clearly defined administrative action specified by the market.
If the named individual is not listed, resolution depends on the market’s rules: some markets have an 'Other' outcome or will be voided/adjusted; consult the event terms or exchange FAQ for the specific policy on unlisted outcomes.
Whether an acting appointee counts depends on how the market defines the settlement condition—read the event’s resolution criteria to see if acting appointments, nominations, or only Senate-confirmed officials qualify.
Confirmation hearings and Senate procedures typically create volatility: successful hearings increase the likelihood of confirmation, while holds, negative testimony, or procedural delays can lower a candidate’s market support until resolved.
Watch official White House announcements, credible reporting on vetting results, leaks about the shortlist, statements from key Senate leaders, and sudden international events that could shift the administration’s priorities or urgency for a pick.