| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Kellogg | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mike Waltz | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mike Pompeo | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tom Cotton | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mike Rogers | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Steve Feinberg | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Joni Ernst | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Trae Stephens | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Christopher Miller | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ron DeSantis | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bill Hagerty | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Elbridge Colby | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Wesley Hunt | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mike Gallagher | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| No other person | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will become President Trump's next Secretary of Defense; the outcome matters because that person will shape U.S. military policy, procurement priorities, and civilian-military relations. Market prices aggregate public information and expectations about who will be nominated and confirmed.
Secretaries of Defense are typically nominated by the president and — in most cases — must be confirmed by the Senate, so the selection process reflects both White House priorities and congressional dynamics. Historically, transitions at the Defense Department have involved tradeoffs among professional military experience, civilian policy credentials, partisan loyalty, and confirmation risk. The broader geopolitical environment and major security events often accelerate or reshape the White House's choice set.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations of traders and update as new information arrives; they are best read as a market-implied ranking of candidates rather than definitive predictions. Use odds to compare which outcomes the market currently views as more or less likely, and monitor movement after announcements, hearings, or leaks.
The market's close is listed as TBD; check the KALSHI market page for updates. Resolution timing typically follows the platform’s rules and is triggered by the event the market defines (for example, a formal nomination and confirmation), so review the market’s resolution text for the exact trigger.
This market lists 16 outcomes; those outcomes correspond to the named individuals and any alternate options (such as 'Other' or similar labels) specified on the market page. Each outcome represents a single candidate or specified resolution condition as defined by the market.
The winning outcome will be determined according to KALSHI’s stated resolution criteria for this market, which commonly require the person to be officially designated and, where applicable, formally serving under the president. Because platforms vary, confirm whether the market requires a presidential nomination plus Senate confirmation, a swearing-in, or treats an acting appointment as decisive.
Whether an acting secretary counts depends on the market’s resolution language. Some markets require Senate-confirmed status while others may count an official acting appointment; always consult the market rules on KALSHI for how acting service is treated in this listing.
Key price-moving events include official White House announcements or leaked shortlist names, formal nominations, public withdrawals, Senate committee hearings and votes, major endorsements or opposition from influential senators, and sudden geopolitical crises that change the administration’s candidate preferences.