| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Lyons | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Steve Daines | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Markwayne Mullin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jason Chaffetz | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lee Zeldin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| No new person | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ron DeSantis | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Troy Edgar | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tom Homan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will become Donald Trump's next Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The outcome matters because the DHS secretary shapes U.S. policy on immigration, border security, cybersecurity, and disaster response.
The DHS secretary is a Cabinet-level position responsible for coordinating federal homeland security functions and typically requires Presidential nomination and Senate confirmation, though acting appointments are sometimes used. Previous transitions have involved both confirmed nominees and acting secretaries, and candidate selection often reflects the administration's policy priorities and political tradeoffs.
Market prices represent the crowd’s evolving assessment of which listed candidate will ultimately occupy the DHS post; prices change as nomination announcements, vetting, confirmation votes, and related news unfold.
Resolution typically occurs when an individual is officially installed as DHS secretary to serve under President Trump, normally after nomination, any required confirmation, and the formal swearing-in. Check the market’s official resolution text on the platform for the precise criteria used to determine the winning outcome.
That depends on the market’s specific resolution rules. Some markets treat an officially sworn acting secretary as the resolved outcome, while others require Senate-confirmation of a permanent secretary. Review the event’s resolution language to know which cases qualify.
If the confirmed and sworn secretary is not one of the listed outcomes, the platform’s resolution rules apply: options include resolving to an 'other' outcome if provided, canceling/refunding the market, or following another predefined procedure. Consult the event page or exchange rules for the exact handling.
Credible news—official nominations, public withdrawals, major vetting revelations, or endorsements—tends to move prices for the named outcomes quickly as traders update expectations. Volume and price changes will typically spike around such events for this market.
Senate control and the positions of pivotal senators matter because confirmation votes determine whether a nominee can be installed. A nominee acceptable to the Senate majority and key committee members faces a smoother path, while one opposed by influential senators has a higher confirmation risk, which the market will factor in.