| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jeff Bezos | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jensen Huang | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Larry Ellison | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Warren Buffett | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Larry Page | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sergey Brin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Steve Ballmer | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which three individuals will be the wealthiest in the world at the market's resolution time; it matters because changes in the top ranks reflect major moves in asset prices, corporate events, and broader economic trends. Participants express expectations about who will occupy the top three positions when the market resolves.
Global wealth rankings are driven by a mix of public equity valuations, private company valuations, asset disposals, inheritances and major legal or tax events. Historically, top spots have shifted as fortunes tied to large public companies rise and fall, new IPOs create paper wealth, and one-off events (sales, divorces, settlements) redistribute large holdings. This market aggregates trader beliefs about those dynamics into a single, tradable event.
Market prices are an aggregation of participant beliefs about future net-worth rankings and update as new information arrives; they should be read as collective expectations, not guarantees. Because underlying wealth estimates depend on valuations and timing, outcomes reflect the snapshot used for official resolution.
The market will resolve to the outcome that matches the top three individuals by net worth according to the event's official resolution criteria and time; those criteria and the authoritative data sources are specified on the market page and in KALSHI's resolution rules.
Closure is listed on the market page; this particular market currently shows the close time as TBD, so check the market page or KALSHI announcements for the official close and any updates that define the resolution timestamp.
Ties and disputes are handled according to KALSHI's published resolution policies for this market; consult the market's rule text for the specific tie-breaking procedure or adjudication source that will be used.
Significant equity price swings in companies tied to major fortunes, sudden private-valuation events (like an IPO or large secondary), high-value asset sales, public legal judgments or settlements, and major transfers via inheritance or divorce can all quickly change expected rankings.
Resolution will reflect reported net worth at the official resolution time; if death or asset transfers occur before that time, the market will use the valuations and attributions specified by the market's resolution sources and rules to determine who occupies the top three positions.