| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jim Jordan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Steve Scalise | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will become the next Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, a position that sets the chamber's legislative agenda and committee assignments. The identity of the Speaker matters for the functioning and control of the House.
The Speaker is chosen by a majority vote of House members and can be decided on the first ballot or after multiple ballots if no candidate obtains a majority. Contested Speaker elections are driven by party majorities, intra-party factions, and deal‑making within and across caucuses; historically most elections are routine but some have been prolonged and contentious.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregated assessments of which named outcome is most likely and update as new information arrives. They are tools for gauging expectations and are distinct from formal House procedures or endorsements.
Resolution typically follows the market's stated rules and will occur once the House officially elects a Speaker or the market operator sets a closing condition; check the event page for the precise settlement rule.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific label shown on the event page (usually named individuals or a designated alternative); consult the event's outcome labels to see which persons or options are being traded.
Multiple ballots create opportunities for rapid reassessment: traders will update positions between ballots as candidates gain or lose support, withdraw, or secure concessions; the market resolves when an official Speaker is elected per the settlement rules.
The named candidates in the market, majority and minority party leaders, influential caucus chairs and factional leaders, and any swing members whose votes could determine the outcome.
Announcements of endorsements or withdrawals, leaked or reported whip counts, public pledges or deal terms (committee assignments, rule changes), resignations or scandals, and any cross‑party agreements.