| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Tate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Angela Rayner | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nigel Farage | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rachel Reeves | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kemi Badenoch | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Wes Streeting | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ed Davey | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Boris Johnson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| James Cleverly | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Robert Jenrick | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Yvette Cooper | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Darren Jones | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Andy Burnham | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bridget Phillipson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rupert Lowe | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Shabana Mahmood | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| David Lammy | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ed Miliband | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lucy Powell | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Al Carns | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will next hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom; it aggregates traders' information and reactions to political events that affect who leads the government.
The UK Prime Minister is the head of government, normally the leader of the party (or coalition) that commands a majority in the House of Commons and is formally appointed by the monarch. Changes in who holds the office can occur after a general election, following an internal party leadership contest, or when an incumbent resigns or is replaced by their party, all of which create entry points for this market.
Market prices reflect the collective assessment of who is most likely to become Prime Minister given available information and update as events unfold; interpret them as a relative signal of market participants' expectations rather than a definitive prediction of timing.
The market resolves to the individual who is officially appointed and has accepted the office of Prime Minister according to the platform's resolution criteria; informal leadership changes do not settle the market until the appointment is formalized.
Settlement typically requires the formal commission from the monarch and the new Prime Minister taking office under the platform's stated resolution rules; consult the event page for any additional legal or timing criteria used by the market operator.
If the person who becomes Prime Minister is not among the listed outcomes, resolution follows the platform's contingency rules — that may include settling to an 'other' option if present, applying a predefined procedure, or following the market operator's dispute/resolution policy, so check the event details.
No — contests and elections are drivers of change but the market only settles when someone has formally become Prime Minister; interim events influence prices but do not by themselves determine the winner.
Only the platform or market creator can modify outcomes or rules, and any changes are governed by the platform's change-and-notification policies; review the event page and platform terms for how amendments are handled and communicated.