| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naftali Bennett | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Yoav Gallant | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Yariv Levin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Israel Katz | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Benny Gantz | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Yair Lapid | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Gadi Eisenkot | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Yossi Cohen | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Yair Golan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Itamar Ben-Gvir | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bezalel Smotrich | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will become the next new Prime Minister of Israel; it matters because the identity of the prime minister determines government policy, coalition composition, and Israel's domestic and foreign priorities.
Israel is a parliamentary system where governments are formed through coalition-building in the Knesset rather than by a single nationwide plurality. Frequent elections, coalition negotiations, and judicial or security developments have made the timing and identity of leadership changes less predictable in recent years.
Market prices on this event reflect traders' collective assessment of who is most likely to take office next and will change as new information arrives; they are a real-time signal of market sentiment, not a deterministic forecast.
It refers to the first person who assumes office as Prime Minister after this market was created and who is not the sitting prime minister at the time of market creation; the market resolves to whichever named individual is officially sworn in under the market's resolution rules.
Resolution follows the platform's published settlement rules: the market will be settled based on the official announcement or sworn-in status of a new prime minister as defined in the event description; because the close date is listed as TBD, check the market page for the specific resolution criteria and any amendment notices.
After elections the President typically grants a mandate to a Knesset member believed most likely to form a viable coalition; that person must secure support in the Knesset and be sworn in, while in other scenarios a sitting prime minister can remain caretaker until a successor is confirmed—this sequence is what the market tracks.
Rapid shifts often follow election results, breakthroughs or breakdowns in coalition talks, surprise resignations or indictments, urgent security incidents, or court decisions that alter eligibility or political standing of key figures.
Volume indicates how much money has circulated through this market, which affects liquidity and how easily positions can be entered or exited; higher volume generally means prices reflect broader participation and information, though volume does not guarantee accuracy of the market's assessment.