| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ding Xuexiang | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Chen Jining | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Li Qiang | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cai Qi | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Li Xi | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Yin Li | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Li Ganjie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Zhao Leji | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Wang Huning | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| He Lifeng | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ma Xingrui | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Chen Min'er | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Zhang Guoqing | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Yin Yong | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks who will be publicly named as Xi Jinping's successor; the outcome matters because an explicit successor would clarify future leadership and policy direction in China. Market prices aggregate traders' reactions to official signals and elite maneuvering.
Leadership transitions in the Chinese Communist Party are typically decided through internal elite processes and formalized at events such as the Party Congress, plenary sessions, or National People's Congress meetings. Since Xi Jinping has centralized power and removed formal term limits, the timing and form of any successor announcement may differ from past transitions and will be driven by elite consensus, institutional reforms, and strategic considerations.
Prediction market odds reflect participants' aggregated expectations based on public signals, personnel moves, and institutional timing; they update as new information emerges but are not definitive forecasts. Traders should treat prices as real-time summaries of information rather than guarantees of an outcome.
Resolution typically follows an official, documented announcement from central party or state organs; check the market's specific rules for which announcement or source determines the winning outcome.
Key moments include a Party Congress, major plenum, Central Committee session, or a National People's Congress meeting—these are the standard venues where senior leadership changes are formalized.
Signals include elevation to the Politburo or its Standing Committee, appointment to senior state or party offices (e.g., vice chair positions, key ministry posts), leadership of major provinces or party departments, and expanded visibility in official events.
Anti-corruption actions can remove rivals and alter factional balances, thereby strengthening certain candidates; sudden disciplinary actions or investigations are therefore important signals to monitor.
Watch ordering and prominence in official photographs and lists, frequency of public appearances, changes in formal titles or portfolios, and inclusion in key delegations or meetings—these are common, durable indicators of status shifts.