| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Bessent | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Casey Means | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sean Plankey | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Robert Cekada | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Walter "Jay" Clayton | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| David MacNeil | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Stevan Pearce | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Billy Long | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lindsey Halligan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Brett Matsumoto | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which specific nominee listed on the contract will be confirmed by the U.S. Senate before May. Outcomes matter because confirmations alter the composition and functioning of the federal government and can have policy and administrative consequences in the near term.
Senate confirmation is a multi-step process that typically includes nomination, committee hearings and votes, and a floor vote; timing depends on Senate calendar, committee workload, and leadership priorities. Historical confirmation timelines vary widely by post and political context — some nominees move quickly with bipartisan support, while others are delayed by hearings, holds, or partisan disputes. Close Senate margins and competing floor business often compress the window for confirmations before a fixed date such as May.
Market prices aggregate participants' information and expectations about which named nominee will clear the Senate before May and update as procedural developments and news arrive. Treat prices as indicators of collective beliefs and respond to changes in hearings, votes, leadership scheduling, and public controversies rather than as fixed forecasts.
Settlement depends on the market's official rules: the contract will resolve based on the Senate's official confirmation date relative to the cutoff defined in the market description, so consult the market page for the exact cutoff time and timezone.
The market page lists up to ten specific named nominees that are eligible outcomes; only those explicitly listed on the contract can win, so check the market's outcome list to see who is included.
Resolution rules vary by contract: some markets award the win to the first listed nominee confirmed before the cutoff, others may specify a different tie-breaking rule—refer to the market's settlement criteria for the exact procedure.
Committee scheduling dictates when a nominee can be considered; a timely committee vote is usually required before a floor vote, and cloture votes to end debate add calendar days. Leadership control of the floor calendar and any holds or objections can further delay confirmation past the May cutoff.
Key market-moving items include announced hearing dates, committee vote results, public commitments or opposition from pivotal senators, formal scheduling of a floor vote by Senate leadership, withdrawals of nominations, and major new disclosures about a nominee's background.