| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Warsh | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Judy Shelton | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rick Rieder | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kevin Hassett | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will be confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve; the Fed chair shapes U.S. monetary policy and has major influence on inflation, employment, and financial markets.
The President nominates a candidate and the Senate must confirm that nominee; recent Fed chairs have served multi-year terms and confirmations are high-profile political events. Economic conditions (inflation, growth, labor markets) and the Senate's partisan balance are key contextual factors influencing both the nomination process and confirmation prospects.
Market prices reflect traders' collective assessment of which listed outcome is most likely given available information and update as new news arrives; they are a dynamic signal of market expectations, not a guaranteed prediction.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific label shown on the event page (typically named individuals or an alternative such as 'Other' or 'No confirmation'); consult the market's outcome labels for the exact options being traded.
The market is listed as closing 'TBD'; it will close according to the platform’s stated end condition—commonly when an official confirmation occurs or on a pre-specified resolution date—so monitor the event page for updates.
Resolution will follow the market’s posted rules and resolution source, typically based on official Senate records showing a formal confirmation vote and its result; the event page or rulebook specifies the exact evidence the platform will use.
Total volume indicates how much money has been traded on the market so far and is a rough proxy for liquidity and market interest, but it does not by itself indicate which outcome will occur.
A nomination or major news will typically cause rapid repricing as traders incorporate the new information; remember the market still resolves based on official confirmation, so interim events matter only to the extent they change confirmation likelihood.