| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Nicolás Maduro | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Gavin Newsom | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lee Jun-seok | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bill Clinton | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Anthony Fauci | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Kim Keon Hee | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Barack Obama | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hillary Clinton | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| James Clapper | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| James Comey | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Brennan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Susan Rice | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Kerry | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Loretta Lynch | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Adam Schiff | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lisa Cook | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Han Duck-soo | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Mahmoud Khalil | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Letitia James | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tom Homan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Joe Biden | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Brandon Johnson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Greta Thunberg | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Pam Bondi | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kash Patel | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Candace Owens | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which named individual will be arrested before 2027; it aggregates traders’ information and judgments about the likelihood that those people will be taken into custody within the stated timeframe. Outcomes matter because arrests of public figures can affect elections, policy debates, and institutional accountability.
Prediction markets like this one collect price signals that reflect new evidence, legal filings, and public reporting about ongoing investigations. Arrests of high-profile political figures depend on investigative timelines, prosecutorial decisions, jurisdictional authority, and procedural steps such as indictments, warrants, or plea negotiations. The market covers a fixed set of named outcomes and resolves based on whether an arrest is publicly verified before the 2027 cutoff.
Market prices summarize aggregate expectations and respond rapidly to news and official actions, but they are not definitive forecasts; they should be used alongside primary-source reporting and official records. Sudden price moves often reflect new filings, arrests, or credible reporting rather than gradual reassessments alone.
An arrest generally means a detention by law enforcement that is publicly verifiable via an official statement, booking record, or court filing indicating the individual was taken into custody; routine detentions without booking or private surrender arrangements may be treated according to the platform's published resolution policy.
No; indictments, charges, or unexecuted warrants typically do not count as an arrest. The market resolves on whether an actual arrest occurs and is verifiable before the cutoff date.
Resolution relies on verifiable sources: official law-enforcement releases, court records, or similarly credible documentation. The platform's resolution team will consult those primary sources and its rules to decide when a report is sufficient to confirm an arrest.
Outcomes are predefined when the market is created and are not typically added mid‑market; once an arrest is confirmed for a listed individual, that specific outcome will be resolved per the market's rules and remaining outcomes continue until resolution or market close.
Major drivers include unsealed indictments, arrest warrants, public surrenders, extraditions, official prosecutor statements, credible law-enforcement leaks or confirmations, and definitive court entries such as bookings or arraignment notices; speculative or unverified social-media claims can also move prices but are less reliable for resolution.