Who will advance in the Paris mayoral election?

Outcome	Probability	Yes Bid	Yes Ask	24h Change	Volume
Pierre-Yves Bournazel	0%	0¢	0¢	—	$0	Trade →
Emmanuel Grégoire	0%	0¢	0¢	—	$0	Trade →
Rachida Dati	0%	0¢	0¢	—	$0	Trade →
Sarah Knafo	0%	0¢	0¢	—	$0	Trade →
Sophia Chikirou	0%	0¢	0¢	—	$0	Trade →

About This Market

This prediction market asks which candidate(s) or list(s) will advance in the Paris mayoral election and matters because advancement determines who competes for the mayoralty and signals shifting voter and coalition strength in the city.

Paris mayoral contests are embedded in France’s municipal electoral system, where local lists and national parties compete and outcomes can be shaped by two-round voting and coalition-building. Historical patterns in Paris show strong effects from turnout, inter-party alliances, and local issues like housing, transit, and environmental policy on which contenders reach a final round. National political trends and high-profile campaign events often ripple into the Paris race given the city’s symbolic importance.

Market prices reflect the collective assessment of traders about which outcome will occur and should be read as a real-time signal of relative market sentiment, not a guaranteed prediction or official result.

Key Factors

Turnout levels across different arrondissements and demographic groups, which can shift which lists cross advancement thresholds
Alliances, withdrawals, or list mergers between rounds that change which competitors remain viable
National political climate and performance of major parties, which can boost or harm local lists tied to them
Local campaign issues (housing affordability, transport, policing, environmental measures) that drive voter preferences in Paris
Legal or administrative events (disqualifications, candidate withdrawals, official scheduling changes) that can alter the candidate field or timing

Frequently Asked Questions

Which candidates or lists are included among the five outcomes in this market?

The five outcomes correspond to the specific candidate names or lists displayed on this market’s outcome list; consult the market page to see which individuals or lists are being traded in this event.

What does 'advance' mean in the context of the Paris mayoral election for this market?

'Advance' refers to qualifying for the subsequent decisive round of the municipal mayoral contest according to the official electoral rules used in Paris; the market uses the same legal definition that election authorities apply to determine which competitors move on.

How will this market be resolved if the scheduled election date is postponed or the election calendar changes?

Resolution will follow the market operator’s published rules and official announcements from electoral authorities; any change to scheduling or official results will be handled according to those resolution procedures, which are posted with the market.

What happens to the market if a candidate withdraws or is disqualified before the first round?

Treatment of withdrawals or disqualifications depends on the market’s rulebook: the operator may remove or void affected outcomes or resolve based on the official list of candidates at the time specified for resolution; check the market rules and updates for specifics.

When will this market close and what determines the settlement time given that the close time is listed as TBD?

The market close and settlement time will be set by the market operator and typically announced before the relevant election round; settlement is normally based on the official, certified results released by electoral authorities and on the operator’s published timeline.

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About This Market

Key Factors

Frequently Asked Questions