| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ali Khamenei | 70% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $4.5M | Resolved |
| Xi Jinping | 9% | 8¢ | 9¢ | — | $456K | Trade → |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel | 68% | 67¢ | 68¢ | — | $341K | Trade → |
| Vladimir Putin | 12% | 12¢ | 13¢ | — | $308K | Trade → |
| Keir Starmer | 72% | 70¢ | 72¢ | — | $268K | Trade → |
| ✓ Nicolás Maduro | 99% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $214K | Resolved |
| Gustavo Petro | 95% | 95¢ | 96¢ | — | $139K | Trade → |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 31% | 30¢ | 31¢ | — | $114K | Trade → |
| Claudia Sheinbaum | 9% | 9¢ | 10¢ | — | $88K | Trade → |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 28% | 27¢ | 31¢ | — | $75K | Trade → |
| Viktor Orbán | 63% | 62¢ | 64¢ | — | $46K | Trade → |
| Emmanuel Macron | 11% | 11¢ | 12¢ | — | $38K | Trade → |
| ✓ José Jerí | 98% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $31K | Resolved |
| Sanae Takaichi | 5% | 5¢ | 6¢ | — | $29K | Trade → |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 11% | 9¢ | 12¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| Ahmad al-Sharaa | 15% | 15¢ | 17¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| Kim Jong Un | 9% | 7¢ | 9¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| Pedro Sánchez | 24% | 23¢ | 24¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 13% | 13¢ | 14¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Mark Carney | 9% | 8¢ | 12¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Aleksandar Vučić | 21% | 16¢ | 20¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Christopher Luxon | 38% | 37¢ | 41¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Jens-Frederik Nielsen | 20% | 15¢ | 20¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Nayib Bukele | 5% | 4¢ | 11¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Delcy Rodriguez | 31% | 29¢ | 32¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Friedrich Merz | 10% | 10¢ | 12¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Mette Frederiksen | 16% | 16¢ | 22¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Narendra Modi | 4% | 3¢ | 9¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Cyril Ramaphosa | 16% | 9¢ | 16¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Javier Milei | 9% | 5¢ | 9¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 4% | 5¢ | 8¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Lee Jae Myung | 12% | 8¢ | 11¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Giorgia Meloni | 8% | 7¢ | 10¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Rodrigo Paz Pereira | 9% | 6¢ | 9¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Frederik X | 8% | 2¢ | 5¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Denis Sassou Nguesso | 19% | 13¢ | 18¢ | — | $662 | Trade → |
| Irfaan Ali | 5% | 6¢ | 13¢ | — | $421 | Trade → |
| Daniel Noboa | 17% | 10¢ | 17¢ | — | $362 | Trade → |
| Félix Tshisekedi | 11% | 11¢ | 17¢ | — | $279 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market tracks whether specific named world leaders will be out of their listed offices during 2026. It matters because changes in national leadership can alter foreign policy, markets, and global stability.
Different countries follow different electoral timetables and constitutional rules, so 2026 will include a mix of scheduled transitions and the possibility of unscheduled exits (resignations, removals, health events, or coups). Recent years have seen both orderly transfers and abrupt departures, so markets aggregate public information about those dynamics for each named leader.
Market prices reflect collective expectations based on available information and will move as new events occur; use them as a real‑time signal of how observers are updating their views rather than as a fixed forecast.
The market comprises 39 distinct outcomes, each tied to a specific named leader or office as listed on the event page; consult the market's outcome list to see the exact names and office titles covered.
Resolution timing is listed on the market page (currently closes: TBD); the event’s resolution criteria on that page define whether ‘out in 2026’ means leaving office at any point during the calendar year or by a specific cutoff—always check the market's official resolution rules.
Outcomes can be triggered by resignation, death, removal via impeachment or no‑confidence motions, judicial disqualification, military coups, or other legally recognized changes in office-holding; the platform will follow its listed sources for confirmation.
Monitor official government statements, national electoral commissions, constitutional court announcements, and reputable international news agencies for each country listed; watch for early election calls, filing deadlines, and formal notices of resignation or removal.
Many outcomes are driven by scheduled electoral cycles and constitutional term limits—check each country’s electoral timetable and rules for eligibility and term length, since those structural factors set the baseline probability of a leader remaining or leaving office in 2026.