| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COVID-19 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dengue | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hepatitis B | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Influenza | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Polio | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rotavirus | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which vaccines the CDC will no longer recommend in 2026; it matters because changes to CDC recommendations affect public health practice, insurance coverage, and vaccination policy across the U.S.
CDC recommendations are typically based on evidence reviews by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), FDA licensure/status, and post-marketing safety and effectiveness data. Historical examples show that the CDC has occasionally narrowed, suspended, or removed recommendations in response to new safety signals, changes in disease epidemiology, or when vaccines are withdrawn by manufacturers.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which recommendation changes will be announced, not definitive forecasts; interpret odds as the market’s snapshot of informed beliefs subject to change as new CDC, FDA, clinical, or political developments occur.
Resolution typically requires a clear, official CDC action such as an ACIP vote recommending removal or suspension from the immunization schedule, or a CDC guidance statement formally advising that the vaccine is no longer recommended for the indicated population in 2026.
Key movers include ACIP meeting announcements and minutes, CDC guidance releases, FDA labeling or authorization updates, major peer-reviewed safety/effectiveness studies, and manufacturer press releases about withdrawal or discontinuation.
ACIP meeting calendars and CDC publication timelines create windows when recommendations can change; late-breaking data presented at a meeting or in an addendum can prompt recommendations within weeks to months, so watch meeting agendas and CDC Federal Register notices for potential resolution triggers.
Resolution depends on the event’s explicit outcome definitions; generally, a change that matches an outcome’s wording (such as removal for specified populations or indications) will be used—consult the market’s resolution rules or Kalshi’s official determinations for tie-breaking details.
Yes; policy decisions can be influenced by political or legal developments and those official CDC recommendation changes would count. Market participants should monitor Congressional actions, litigation, and administration statements alongside scientific developments.