| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonia Sotomayor | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Clarence Thomas | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Samuel Alito | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Roberts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which sitting Supreme Court justices will leave the Court (create vacancies) during President Trump's term. Outcomes matter because any departures determine who the President can nominate and thereby shape the Court's ideological balance.
Supreme Court justices hold lifetime appointments but sometimes step down for health, personal, or strategic political reasons; retirements and resignations have historically been influenced by age, health, and the partisan control of the Senate. Presidents often time or encourage departures to maximize the chance of confirming a like-minded successor, and unexpected events can also create vacancies.
Market prices aggregate participant beliefs about which justices will depart by the market's resolution window and update as new information appears. Use prices as a real-time signal of collective expectations, not as guarantees of outcome.
The market resolves based on the official term window specified in its rules — typically the official presidential term start and end dates. Check the event page or market rules for the precise resolution window and any tie-breaking provisions.
Most markets count the effective date of a departure, not the announcement date; a resignation takes effect only when the justice's service officially ends. Confirm the market's resolution criteria for whether announcements vs. effective dates are used.
Whether different types of departures count depends on the market's definitions. Many markets treat any official end of service that creates a vacancy (retirement, resignation, or death) as a qualifying departure, but you should verify the event's specific resolution language.
Temporary absences, recusals, or leaves of absence do not usually qualify as resignations; the market typically requires an official termination of service resulting in a vacancy. Check the event rules for confirmation.
This event focuses on which justices leave, not who fills the seat. Resolution generally depends on the departing justice's status; the appointment or confirmation of a successor is a separate factual development and only matters if the event's wording explicitly ties outcomes to replacements.