| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruben Gallego | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jeanne Shaheen | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Thom Tillis | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mike Lee | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maggie Hassan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Kennedy | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mitch McConnell | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kevin Cramer | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Hickenlooper | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Fetterman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rand Paul | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lisa Murkowski | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tim Scott | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Susan Collins | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual U.S. Senators will vote for the next Federal Reserve Chair nominee. It matters because Senate support determines confirmation and signals how monetary policy leadership will be received politically.
The President nominates a candidate for Fed Chair, who typically appears before the Senate Banking Committee for hearings before the full Senate votes on confirmation. Historically confirmations range from broadly bipartisan to tightly partisan depending on the nominee's record, the Senate majority, and the broader economic context.
Market prices aggregate public information and traders' expectations about which senators will vote for the nominee. Treat prices as a dynamic signal that can move with hearings, whip counts, leadership statements, and other developments, not as a fixed prediction.
Resolution will follow the market platform's published rules; typically this occurs when there is an official Senate confirmation vote for the next Fed Chair nominee and the platform can use the Senate's official vote record to determine which senators voted for the nominee. If no confirmation vote occurs, the platform's rules govern whether the market is canceled, voided, or otherwise resolved.
In most cases 'voting for' means a senator is recorded as casting an affirmative vote on the Senate's official roll call for confirmation; abstentions, absences, or procedural votes that do not record a 'yea' are generally not counted as voting for the nominee under standard resolution practices.
Voice votes and unanimous consent do not produce individual vote records, which can complicate resolution; the market will follow the platform's specific resolution policy in that circumstance, so consult the market's rules or announcements for how such scenarios are handled.
If the named nominee withdraws before a recorded Senate vote, the platform's rules determine next steps—common outcomes include cancellation, voiding, or resolution based on the withdrawal event; a subsequent nominee typically triggers a separate market unless the platform specifies otherwise.
Developments that change perceived senator preferences tend to move markets most: whip counts and private outreach reports, public endorsements or opposition from party leaders, hearing performance and revealed policy commitments, major economic developments, and changes to the Senate calendar for scheduling a vote.