| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Pharmaceuticals | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Canadian aircraft | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Critical minerals | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Wind turbines | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Foreign-made films | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which economic sectors President Trump will impose new tariffs on in 2026; it matters because tariffs can shift trade patterns, input costs, and sector-level investment decisions. Market prices aggregate participant expectations about where new trade barriers are most likely to fall.
Trump's prior administration used tariffs and trade remedies (notably on steel, aluminum, and a range of China-targeted goods) and relied on executive authorities such as Section 232 and Section 301. Tariff decisions combine political priorities, industry lobbying, legal authorities, and geopolitical tensions, and they are typically implemented via formal proclamations, USTR actions, or Federal Register notices. The 2026 context will reflect campaign positions, economic conditions, and any ongoing trade disputes or national-security arguments.
Market prices reflect collective expectations and update in response to new information; they are not guarantees but are useful for tracking how the likelihood of different sector targets changes over time.
It means the market organizer has not set a final stop-trade time; the market will remain open until Kalshi posts an explicit close time or the contract is otherwise resolved by their rules, so participants should monitor the platform and related announcements.
Resolution will follow the event's specific contract text on Kalshi; in practice that typically requires a formal action such as a Presidential proclamation, USTR tariff listing, or Federal Register notice imposing new import duties on the named sector rather than mere proposals or campaign rhetoric—check the contract rules for exact criteria.
Usually only formal imposition actions count; threats, proposals, or negotiations without an official tariff implementation are generally not sufficient for resolution, but you should review the market's resolution language to confirm.
Yes—historical actions show patterns (steel, aluminum, China-targeted goods, solar, etc.) and the legal tools used, which inform expectations about likely targets and implementation pathways, though past patterns do not guarantee future choices.
Reported volume is a snapshot of liquidity: lower volume can make prices more sensitive to individual trades and move more on news, and having five outcomes splits available liquidity across choices, so traders should account for potentially higher price volatility and wider spreads.