| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz-KDNP | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| TISZA | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| DK | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| MH | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which party will win Hungary's next parliamentary election, a key indicator of who will form the national government and set policy for the following term. The outcome matters for domestic policy, EU relations, and investor and diplomatic expectations.
Hungary elects a single-chamber National Assembly; the current institutional framework and recent political history shape the contest. Since 2010, one party has held power for multiple terms, but opposition strategies, coalition-building, and shifts in public sentiment have been important in recent cycles.
Prediction market prices aggregate traders' beliefs about which party will come out on top, incorporating public polling, news, and new information as it arrives. Prices are not guarantees; they reflect collective expectations at a given moment and can change rapidly as events unfold.
The market close is listed as TBD; final timing will depend on the market operator's rules and the official election schedule. Check the market page for updates as the national election date is confirmed.
Winning typically refers to the party or party list specified in the contract that finishes first under the contract's settlement rules. Consult the market's contract description for the precise operational definition (e.g., plurality of seats, ability to form a governing majority).
This market includes four mutually exclusive outcomes representing which party (or party label) will be declared the winner per the contract. See the market page for the specific party names and how each outcome is labeled.
Past elections show voting patterns, the durability of incumbency, and how opposition alliances affect outcomes; traders use that history alongside current polls and events to update their expectations. Historical context helps interpret swings and the plausibility of different outcomes.
Major events include coalition agreements or splits, leadership changes, large-scale scandals, clear polling shifts, major economic shocks, electoral law changes, or unexpected geopolitical developments that reshape voter priorities.