| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Ruto | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cyril Ramaphosa | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Abdel Fattah el-Sisi | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Paul Kagame | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Taye Atske Selassie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bola Tinubu | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Félix Tshisekedi | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Emmerson Mnangagwa | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Mahama | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Abdelmadjid Tebboune | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks which of the listed African leaders will leave office next; the outcome matters because leadership changes can alter domestic policy, regional security, and investor sentiment.
Africa's political landscape features a mix of scheduled elections, constitutional term limits, coups, resignations, health-related absences, and judicial removals; recent years have seen several high-profile turnovers and contested successions. Assessing which leader might leave next requires attention to each country's electoral calendar, institutional strength, and on-the-ground political dynamics.
Market prices reflect the collective, real-time assessment of traders about which listed leader will be the next to leave office; they update as new information arrives but do not themselves cause or define the underlying events.
For this event, 'leave office' normally includes an incumbent's formal resignation, removal through constitutional or extra-constitutional means (including coups), death in office, or completion of the incumbent's term when a successor is sworn in; the market will use publicly confirmed official announcements or credible reporting to determine whether a departure has occurred.
If multiple listed leaders leave office effectively at the same time, settlement follows the platform's timestamp and adjudication rules; that can mean multiple outcomes pay if both meet the event criteria simultaneously, or the market operator may use time-of-day verification to determine the first qualifying departure.
A TBD close date means the market remains open until the platform sets a formal close or until a triggering event occurs; departures that meet the event's confirmation criteria before the market's final settlement will generally be eligible for settlement once verified, but the exact timing of payout depends on the platform's confirmation and settlement process.
Price moves reflect traders updating their assessments in response to new information; they indicate collective reaction but do not determine whether an actual departure has occurred — the event settles only on a verified leaving-of-office according to the market's adjudication standards.
Temporary transfers of authority (e.g., short-term medical incapacitation with an acting leader) typically do not count unless the incumbent is officially removed, resigns, or a legal process alters their status; the market relies on formal, verifiable changes to the incumbent's legal status or an official announcement confirming they have left office.