| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Carney | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Emmanuel Macron | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Donald Trump | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Giorgia Meloni | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Friedrich Merz | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sanae Takaichi | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Keir Starmer | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which current G7 leader will be the next to leave office, a question that matters because leadership changes in G7 countries can shift international policy, trade, and market expectations.
The Group of Seven (G7) consists of major advanced economies whose heads of government or state shape global coordination on economics, security, and climate. Tenure lengths vary by system (presidential vs. parliamentary), and turnover can come from elections, coalition breakdowns, health issues, scandals, or unexpected events. Because G7 leaders are high-profile, their departures often have outsized political and economic ripple effects.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregated, real-time expectations about which leader will depart next and when, updating as new information arrives. Treat them as a live indicator of perceived risk or timing rather than a guaranteed prediction.
For this market, 'leave' means a formal and permanent end to a leader’s tenure as head of government or state (examples: resignation, removal from office, formal electoral defeat, or death in office). Temporary absences or acting/interim duties that do not end the incumbent’s tenure are not considered a departure.
Simultaneous departures are resolved according to the platform’s settlement rules; common approaches are using the earliest official timestamped announcement or a predefined tie-breaking rule. Consult the market’s official settlement terms for the exact procedure.
Scheduled elections are major drivers: as an election approaches, changes in polls, coalition negotiations, and campaign events will typically move market expectations. Outcomes are influenced both by whether an incumbent is running and by the perceived risk of being unseated.
Most markets fix the list of eligible outcomes at launch, meaning the options reflect the leaders at that time; if a new leader takes office before a resolution condition is met, the market’s official rules determine whether the new leader becomes eligible or the market continues to reference the original list. Check the event description for the specific rule applied here.
Relevant patterns include shorter tenures in fragile coalition governments, higher turnover during periods of acute economic stress or scandal, and relative stability in systems with strong incumbency advantages or constitutional limits. Different political systems produce different typical causes and timing for departures.