| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Germany | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| France | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Spain | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Poland | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hungary | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which specific countries will vote to leave the European Union before 2030; it matters because departures would reshape EU politics, trade, and regional stability.
The item builds on precedents such as the United Kingdom's 2016 referendum and the broader rise of Eurosceptic parties in several member states. Economic shocks, migration issues, and domestic political realignments have periodically increased pressure for exit votes in multiple countries.
Market prices aggregate traders' views about the likelihood of exit votes based on available information and update as events unfold; they are not guarantees but indicators that respond to new developments, announcements, and polling.
Resolution typically requires a legally effective national action: a binding national referendum or a parliamentary decision that initiates a formal withdrawal process before 2030; non-binding local or consultative votes are usually excluded. Specific resolution criteria will follow the market's published rules.
Eligible countries are current EU member states relevant at the time the market was listed; changes in membership status or newly admitted members would be subject to the market's published eligibility and resolution rules.
Partial or advisory actions that do not trigger a legally binding withdrawal process typically do not meet the criteria for a counted 'vote to leave'; the market looks for actions that have legal force or clearly initiate formal exit procedures.
For this market the relevant cutoff is the date of the vote or formal parliamentary decision; a vote held before 2030 that meets the market's legal criteria would be the trigger even if administrative withdrawal completes later.
EU-level treaty changes or emergency measures can alter domestic incentives and legal pathways for exit, and traders will update positions accordingly; however, whether such developments change what ultimately counts for resolution depends on whether they change national legal outcomes that meet the market's stated criteria.