| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Burma (Myanmar) | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Gaza | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Haiti | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iran | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lebanon | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Libya | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| North Korea | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Russia | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Somalia | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| South Sudan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sudan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Syria | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ukraine | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Venezuela | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Yemen | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iraq | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of 17 candidate countries will have their US Travel Advisory level lowered during 2026. The outcome matters to travelers, businesses, and analysts tracking security, health, and diplomatic changes that affect international mobility.
US Travel Advisories are public guidance issued by the US Department of State that can be raised or lowered as security, health, and governance conditions change. Historically advisories shift in response to conflict de-escalation, improvements in public safety or health, diplomatic progress, and post-disaster recovery; 2026 outcomes will reflect those same drivers amid ongoing geopolitical and public-health dynamics. Market participants should watch country-specific incidents and official State Department statements for signals of change.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation that a country on the market list will see a country-level advisory lowered during the event window; prices update as new information arrives. Check the market's official rules for the exact resolution standard and cutoff date, since those determine which advisory changes count.
The market lists 17 candidate countries as individual outcomes; each outcome corresponds to whether that country will have its US Travel Advisory lowered during the event window. Consult the market page for the exact list of the 17 countries.
A downgrade generally means the US Department of State issues a country-level travel advisory that is less restrictive than the previous advisory (i.e., a move to a lower advisory level). Resolution relies on official State Department advisories or authoritative releases; consult the market's resolution rules for the precise definition used.
The event is limited to changes occurring within the 2026 event window as defined by the market. Because the market's official close is listed as TBD, participants should check the market rules/announcements for the exact cutoff date and whether the calendar year or another interval is being used.
Most resolution frameworks require a change at the country-level advisory to count; subnational or region-specific adjustments typically do not qualify unless the market's rules explicitly allow them. Verify the event's resolution criteria to confirm how regional advisories are handled.
Markets commonly resolve based on whether a qualifying downgrade occurred within the event window, regardless of subsequent reversals, but final determination follows the market's published arbitration and resolution rules. Check those rules or the market administrator's statements for the definitive policy on reversals.