| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| China | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Germany | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Japan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| India | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which country outcomes will experience a recession prior to 2027. It matters because recessions materially affect growth, trade, employment, and policy decisions in the countries listed.
The market sits against a backdrop of uneven post-pandemic recoveries, elevated inflation in many regions, and active central bank policy. Geographic and sectoral differences mean some economies remain more exposed to cyclical slowdowns, commodity swings, or financial stress than others.
Market prices aggregate traders' information and news into a consensus expectation about whether a listed country will enter recession before 2027. Prices move as new data, policy actions, or shocks change the perceived likelihood of a recession outcome.
Resolution follows the contract's stated definition and the authoritative official statistics cited in the market terms; typically that means using national statistical agency or other specified GDP releases and the exact rule spelled out in the market's contract text.
The specific five outcomes are listed on this market's event page; outcomes are normally fixed in the contract once trading begins, and any changes would be announced by the exchange under its amendment rules.
'Before 2027' is interpreted per the contract timeline—most commonly it means any date up to and including December 31, 2026—so check the market terms for the exact inclusive/exclusive cutoff.
Exchanges resolve outcomes based on the official releases specified in the contract; if initial estimates are revised later, the contract will state whether settlement waits for a first release or a final revised series, and any adjudication procedures are handled per the market rules.
Large macro data surprises (GDP, employment, inflation), central bank rate decisions and guidance, sovereign- or banking-sector stress, and major commodity or geopolitical shocks are the principal catalysts that alter assessments about whether a country will enter recession before 2027.