| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Boston | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Chicago | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ New York City | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Baltimore | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Detroit | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| San Francisco | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Houston | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Portland | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Charlotte | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Minneapolis | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
This market asks which specific U.S. cities will host National Guard deployments at some point in calendar year 2026. Outcomes matter because Guard deployments have direct implications for local public safety, state and federal resource allocation, and political scrutiny.
The National Guard is routinely used by state governors for disasters, law enforcement support, and infrastructure emergencies, and can be federalized by the president for larger national missions; deployment patterns reflect both predictable risks (seasonal storms, wildfire season) and unpredictable events (sudden civil unrest or industrial accidents). Historically, Guard missions concentrate where state or federal authorities declare emergencies, request mutual aid, or secure major planned events, so political decisions and operational needs both shape where troops are sent.
Market prices aggregate traders' collective expectations about which cities will see Guard presence in 2026 and shift as new information arrives; they are not guarantees but can signal changing odds and where attention or risk is concentrated.
Check the contract wording, but generally deployments counted include any instance where National Guard personnel are sent to operate in a listed city under state active-duty orders, federal activation (Title 10), or dual-status tasking if the exchange defines those as covered events.
This market currently lists 10 outcome cities; additional outcomes can only be added if the market operator amends the contract prior to closing, so monitor the market page for any official updates.
Most event contracts use the calendar year window (Jan 1–Dec 31, 2026) and count deployments active during that period; edge cases such as multi-year missions should be resolved by the market's official rules, so consult the contract text for precise inclusion criteria.
State governors can activate their National Guard for state missions, the president can federalize Guard units for national missions, and dual-status or intergovernmental agreements (e.g., EMAC) can also result in deployments — the controlling authority will affect the legal status of the forces but both types can produce the on-the-ground deployments this market tracks.
Official gubernatorial emergency proclamations, Department of Defense or National Guard Bureau press releases, state emergency management updates, FEMA requests and disaster declarations, credible local news reporting, and announcements about major planned events or security postures are the primary signals traders use to update expectations.