| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit-card routing competition | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| AI-chip export licensing | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Critical-minerals stockpile | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Export-control chip security | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Film/TV production expensing | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| SHOWER Act | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Smithsonian Women’s History Museum | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| DEFIANCE Act | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Trump Airport | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Housing for the 21st Century Act | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $2.50 Coin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| SELF DRIVE Act | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Data center utility cost protection | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ROTOR Act | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| FISA Section 702 reauthorization (any length) | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which specific legislative measures will become law during calendar year 2026. It matters because enacted laws shape policy, budgets, regulatory frameworks, and the political environment for the next election cycle.
Federal legislation must clear both chambers of Congress and be enacted by the President (or be enacted via an override); state bills follow each state’s legislative and gubernatorial processes. The U.S. legislative process includes committee review, floor votes, reconciliation where needed, and potential vetoes or legal challenges, so prospects for any bill depend on many moving parts across 2025–2026. Historical patterns show many proposals never reach enactment, while others accelerate quickly when they have leadership, executive support, or pressing public urgency.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective expectations about whether listed bills will be enacted in 2026 and update as new news arrives. Treat prices as dynamic, information-sensitive summaries of market sentiment rather than fixed forecasts.
A bill typically 'becomes law' when it is enacted according to the official process specified in the contract — for federal measures this generally means passage by both chambers and enactment by presidential signature or a successful veto override; markets use authoritative legislative records for resolution and the exact definition will be in the market’s contract terms.
Each outcome in the market should identify the specific bill and jurisdiction; some markets cover only federal bills while others list state measures. Check the outcome descriptions and the exchange’s rules to confirm scope for each listed item.
Resolution depends on the exact bill identifier named in the contract. If a bill is amended but passed under the same bill number, it normally counts as enacted; if a proposal is substantially refiled under a different bill number, that is treated separately. The exchange will follow its contract language and legislative records.
Markets that use calendar-year language generally require the enactment event to occur between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Confirm the precise timing and cutoff in the market’s resolution rules, as some contracts may specify different windows or effective-date criteria.
The exchange or market administrator resolves disputes using the contract terms and authoritative sources (e.g., Congress.gov, state legislative websites, official gazettes). If a case is ambiguous, the market’s resolution procedure and dispute policy will describe how it is handled.