| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada Question 6 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Virginia HJR 1 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Missouri Amendment 3 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which abortion-related measures will pass in 2026, aggregating trader expectations about the outcomes of state-level ballot measures and similar initiatives that could appear in 2026. The result matters because these measures can change state law, affect access to reproductive care, and shape political debates nationwide.
Since the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision in 2022, states have moved in divergent directions: some legislatures and voters have expanded protections for abortion while others have restricted access. 2026 will feature a mix of legislative sessions and state ballot processes (including potential citizen-initiated measures and legislatively referred amendments), so multiple pathways exist for legal change. Legal rulings, ballot qualification processes, and campaign activity in individual states will all shape which measures actually appear on ballots and how voters respond.
Market prices for this event represent the aggregated views of traders about the listed outcomes given current information and will update as new facts emerge. Treat those prices as a real-time signal of market expectations, not as immutable predictions.
This market's outcomes correspond to the specific measures or grouped scenarios listed on the event page; consult the event description for the exact wording and which jurisdictions or measure types each outcome represents.
Resolution timing is tied to official vote certification in the relevant jurisdictions: the event will resolve once the platform follows its stated resolution policy using certified election results for the measures covered. Because jurisdictions certify at different times, final resolution may occur after multiple certifications are complete.
Markets typically resolve based on the official, certified election results unless the platform's rules specify otherwise; a later judicial invalidation may not retroactively change a resolved market, so check the platform's resolution guidelines for how post-election legal challenges are handled.
Key influencers include state secretaries of state and courts (on ballot access and certification), state legislatures and governors (on referenda and statutory changes), major advocacy groups and donors (on funding and messaging), and turnout operations that affect which voters show up in 2026.
Use the market as one real-time indicator alongside polling on specific measures, campaign finance disclosures, petition-qualification updates, legal rulings, and local reporting on ground campaigns; monitor changes across these sources to understand why market expectations move.