| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before March 13 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $537K | Trade → |
| Before February 20 | 1% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $375K | Resolved |
| Before March | 1% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $246K | Resolved |
| Before April | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $123K | Trade → |
| Before May | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| Before February 13 | 2% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $12K | Resolved |
| Before May 15 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Before April 15 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks when Warsh’s nomination for Federal Reserve Chair will be formally received by the United States Senate. The timing matters because the Senate receiving the nomination is the formal start of the Senate’s review and sets the earliest possible schedule for hearings and a confirmation vote.
Under the Constitution the President nominates officials and the Senate provides advice and consent; the nomination is considered "received" when the White House transmits it to the Senate and the Senate records that transmission. Timing between an announcement and official transmission varies widely: some nominations are sent immediately, while others are delayed for further vetting, negotiation, or strategic scheduling around the Senate calendar.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregated expectations about when the Senate will formally receive the nomination and will move as new information emerges (White House statements, Senate calendar changes, or vetting developments). Use the market as a real‑time indicator of timing expectations, not as a definitive prediction of process outcomes beyond receipt.
For settlement purposes, 'received' means the date on which the White House formally transmits the nomination to the Senate and the Senate Secretary records that transmission in the Senate’s official proceedings or executive journal.
No. An announcement by the White House is distinct from formally transmitting the nomination. This market is resolved based on the date of official transmission and Senate receipt, not the announcement date.
Outcomes are organized into mutually exclusive date windows or a 'not received' category that cover when the nomination is recorded by the Senate. Each outcome corresponds to a specific calendar window; check the market’s outcome labels for the exact ranges used.
Key actors include the White House (presidential staff and the Office of Presidential Personnel), the nominee and their team (for completing vetting materials), and Senate leadership and relevant committees, which shape scheduling and acceptance of transmitted nominations.
Settlement will follow the platform’s rulebook: resolution is based on the public Senate record. If the White House never transmits the nomination, the market would resolve to the outcome corresponding to 'not received' or the applicable option covering non‑transmission as defined by the market.