| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Apr 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jun 1, 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks when Venezuela will hold its next presidential election and matters because the election date determines the timeline for potential leadership change, policy direction, and diplomatic responses.
Venezuela has experienced intense political polarization, economic hardship, and international scrutiny in recent years; those conditions have shaped how elections are scheduled, contested, and recognized. The country’s electoral calendar is influenced by domestic institutions, negotiated arrangements between political actors, and responses to crises such as economic shocks or public-health emergencies.
Prices in this market are a real-time aggregation of traders’ expectations about the election date and will change as new information arrives; they are not official schedules and should be interpreted as signals about how participants expect authorities and events to unfold.
The Venezuelan constitution and electoral law set the formal procedures for presidential terms, calling elections, and inaugurations; those procedures are implemented by the CNE, which issues the official election calendar and any decrees that alter timing under special circumstances.
The National Electoral Council (CNE) is the official body that announces election dates; other state organs—such as the executive, the legislature, or courts—can influence timing through legislation, emergency measures, or rulings, and political agreements among parties can also lead to scheduling changes.
Relevant precedents include elections that were contested or postponed amid political and economic crises, negotiated election arrangements between rivals, and instances where international non‑recognition or sanctions followed disputed outcomes; these show how institutional, political, and external pressures can alter timing.
Key actors are the CNE (formal scheduler), the incumbent executive and allied institutions (which can push or delay processes), opposition coalitions (whose participation or withdrawals matter), the judiciary and military (which can affect institutional stability), and foreign governments or regional bodies exerting diplomatic pressure.
An official CNE announcement typically triggers rapid market updates as traders reprice expectations; markets will reflect the new information immediately, and settlement will follow the exchange’s rules once a date is officially confirmed and accepted as the event’s resolution source.