| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Apr 15, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Apr 17, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before May 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Nov 3, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Tony Gonzales will leave his seat in the U.S. House of Representatives before the upcoming midterm elections. The outcome matters because an early departure can change local representation, trigger a special election, and alter political dynamics ahead of the midterms.
Tony Gonzales is a sitting member of Congress representing a district in Texas. Members of Congress sometimes depart midterm for reasons including appointments, health or family issues, legal developments, or to seek other offices; such departures have downstream effects on party strategy and ballot timing. Observers track these possibilities because vacancies can prompt quick campaign shifts and affect legislative votes.
Prediction market prices aggregate trader expectations and update as new information arrives; they are a live indicator of how the market interprets the likelihood of a departure, not a guaranteed outcome. Use prices as a real-time signal that should be combined with direct news and official statements.
Leaving Congress means creating a permanent vacancy in his House seat before the midterm election date, including resignation, expulsion, or death; temporary absences or announcing a future retirement that does not create a vacancy before the midterms do not count.
The cutoff is the official date of the next U.S. federal midterm election; any departure that results in a vacancy prior to that election date is considered 'before the midterms' for this event.
No; an announcement of not seeking reelection by itself does not count as leaving Congress before the midterms unless he vacates the seat prior to the midterm election date.
Yes; if he resigns his House seat to accept an appointment or to assume another elected position before the midterms, that creates a vacancy and counts as leaving under the event terms.
A special election or appointment is a likely consequence of a vacancy and can change the political stakes; markets will react to announcements about timing, candidates, and party prospects, but the market outcome depends solely on whether the vacancy occurs before the midterms, not on how the seat is subsequently filled.