| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Q1 2025 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Q2 2025 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Q3 2025 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Q4 2025 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Q1 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to pick when the next US recession will begin, offering a way to express aggregate expectations about the timing of the next downturn. The outcome matters for investors, policymakers, and businesses because recession timing affects interest rates, asset prices, and planning decisions.
US recessions are officially dated after the fact by institutions such as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and are typically associated with a broad decline in economic activity across sectors. Key drivers since the last slowdown include central bank policy, inflation dynamics, labor market strength, fiscal policy, and financial-sector stresses; those same forces shape how soon the next contraction might begin. Prediction markets bundle public information, news, and trader views into a continuously updating signal about timing.
Market prices in this context represent the collective view of participants about which time window will contain the recession start, and they update as new data and events arrive. Use prices as a real-time indicator of changing expectations, but remember they reflect trader beliefs and liquidity conditions as well as fundamentals.
Outcome labels and the date ranges they represent are listed on the market page; consult the event description and contract terms there for precise outcome names and the resolution calendar.
Resolution criteria are set in the contract text on the market page; some markets reference NBER announcements, others use specific data (e.g., GDP releases) or an exchange-defined rule, so check the event's resolution clause to see which authority or data source governs settlement.
Major macro releases such as monthly employment reports, quarterly GDP, CPI/PCE inflation prints, Federal Reserve FOMC statements, and acute financial-sector developments typically drive large adjustments in expectations about recession timing.
If the contract ties resolution to an official retrospective dating (for example an NBER announcement), then later revisions or retroactive identifications can determine the winner; the market page will specify whether retrospective determinations are binding for settlement.
Higher trading volume and tighter bid-ask spreads generally make price signals more informative; thinly traded outcomes can exhibit large swings from small trades, so monitor liquidity and recent volume alongside prices when interpreting the market.