| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Mar 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before May 15, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before May 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Apr 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks whether Kevin Warsh will be confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve; the outcome matters because the Fed chair sets the policy direction that affects interest rates, financial conditions, and the broader economy.
Kevin Warsh is a former Federal Reserve governor and a public figure with previous Fed experience; a sitting president nominates a Fed chair and the nominee must be confirmed by the U.S. Senate. Historically, Fed chair confirmations combine policy scrutiny, bipartisan considerations about independence, and attention to current economic conditions.
Market odds aggregate traders’ views about the timing and likelihood of confirmation and update as hearings, votes, and news arrive; they are an information signal, not a guarantee of outcome.
This market contains multiple mutually exclusive outcomes that reflect whether and when confirmation occurs (e.g., confirmed by certain dates or not confirmed). Each outcome is tied to official Senate action — the market resolves based on public, verifiable records of confirmation votes.
The normal sequence is nomination by the president, one or more hearings before the Senate Banking Committee, a committee vote to report the nomination to the floor, and then floor action including any cloture vote and a final roll-call confirmation vote in the full Senate.
Resolution is based on official Senate records such as the Senate roll-call vote, the Congressional Record, and other public documentation cited by the market platform as its adjudication standard.
A favorable committee report typically increases the chance of a floor vote and market support for confirmation; failure to secure cloture or a committee rejection can significantly reduce the likelihood of a successful confirmation because they block or delay floor consideration.
Possible next steps include the president withdrawing or resubmitting the nomination, renominating a different candidate, or the incumbent leadership remaining in place until a new chair is confirmed. Markets will reprice quickly as those developments, new nominees, or official scheduling announcements occur.